Beware the potential Zogby spin - it may not be accurate

My prayers go out to those who are affected by Hurricane Gustav. And I think that McCain made a good decision to make changes to the Republican National Convention.

But I echo Obama's sentiments - hopefully those in charge will do better than they did during Hurricane Katrina.

I read something today that is interesting and I want to bring it to everyone's attention before the "spin doctors" try to manipulate it:

Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.

The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

In other words, the race is a dead heat.

The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.

That's the Zogby poll. But the National Gallup poll has Obama ahead by eight points. It also says that Sarah Palin is an unknown quantity.

But how much do you want to bet that the Zogby poll will be repeated ad naseum by McCain's people, Fox News, One News Now, Town Hall, and every conservative blog and talking head who wishes to score quick points for the Republicans.

Already there is an effort underway to spin the Zogby poll. This is what the conservative writers from Newsmax said:

It is incredible, but the designation of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate seems to have totally obliterated Barack Obama's bounce from his convention and after his magnificent speech. Zogby actually has McCain two ahead and Rasmussen's Friday only data shows Obama only three up!

First of all, the use of the Rasmussen poll by Newsmax is a clever distortion.

According to the Rasmussen poll, before the convention, Obama and McCain have been pretty much even with Obama leading slightly.

During and after the convention, the poll shows Obama moving up by three to four points at the most. The Rasmussen poll never showed a "bounce."

So for Newsmax to use the Ramussen poll to claim that Obama enjoyed a big bounce from the convention and that McCain destroyed said bounce by his pick of Palin is highly farfetched.

Which brings me back to the Zogby poll. Anyone who tries to use the Zogby poll to make the case that Palin destroyed Obama's convention bounce is clearly not reading the entire article. Please bear in mind the words in the first sentence of the article's lead:

Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.

What the Zogby poll is actually saying is that McCain's choice of a vice president has added more interest to the race by energizing his base. Before his pick of Palin, many were so-so about his candidacy. Now that he has picked his running mate, interest in him from his base has picked up.

In other words, as the second paragraph of the article clearly says, both candidates have solidified support in their own bases.

This election is not predictable. No one could have ever predicted that Obama would defeat Hilary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and no one could have predicted that McCain would pick Sarah Palin as his running mate.

And I am sure that before it's all over, more unpredictable things will happen.

But hopefully the most unpredictable occurrence will be the pundits and journalists doing their jobs and not giving us half the story . . . for a change.

I await in anticipation to be surprised.